Friday, July 7, 2017

Turkey, Russia & Syria Cooperate To Establish De-escalation Zone in Idlib

Yes, on top of the two previous posts of today- I've got a third.

Give the interview a listen:
Conjuring Hitler: How Britain & America Made the Third Reich

Read about the unsigned deal between Russia and the US for Southwestern Syria- I'm waiting to see what Israel gets out of this ! 
US & Russia Agree To Ceasefire in Southwest Syria: Lavrov

Then read this item from Janes:

Key Points

  • Turkey is likely to seek a leading role in enforcing a future de-escalation zone in Idlib province to ensure its Syrian proxies are represented in Syria's post-war governance, albeit as part of a broader agreement with the Syrian government, mediated by Russia.  
  • The de-escalation zone is likely to come in conjunction with an eventual offensive by the Syrian government in Idlib province, aimed at destroying the Al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadist opposition coalition, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), although this is likely only after pro-Syrian government forces have stabilised other higher priority fronts, including Deir al-Zour, on the River Euphrates.
  • A Turkish Idlib intervention would probably avoid directly targeting HTS, given the risk of this triggering a jihadist insurgency inside Turkey. 
Head back to the post from earlier this week!

Ankara's Offer to Moscow or Vice Versa: Afrin for Idlib/Idlib for Afrin

 It's clear that Russia and loyalists of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad are preparing for a major offensive at Idlib, as they did in Aleppo. They are telling the groups at Idlib, basically, “You have to decide if you are moderates or radicals. If you are moderates, you can either leave Idlib or comply with the rules of de-escalation. If you don’t leave Idlib and refuse to heed the rules of de-escalation, then you are terrorists and deserve to be eliminated.”
Moscow now needs the area Turkey is preparing in the Jarablus/al-Bab/al-Rai triangle for the moderates and their families who will leave Idlib. Russia also needs a reliable mediator in its relations with the groups at Idlib. Ankara can definitely be of great help in this.
  So a federalized Syria? Or a balkanized Syria? It could go either way.

3 comments:

  1. The Natural Gas Wars Begin: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Russia and the USA
    http://marketoracle.co.uk/Article59585.html

    ...interesting piece!

    ReplyDelete
  2. While everyone is distracted ....
    this might be worth a look

    http://iview.abc.net.au/programs/four-corners/NC1704H021S00

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2017/07/03/4693993.htm

      Or did i mean this link??
      http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2017/07/03/4693993.htm

      Delete

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