Monday, June 5, 2017

Bullying Qatar: US Mediation, Concessions, Leadership Replacement.

It's all possible! Trying to get an understanding of what exactly is going on between the Gulf Nations- The US looks to be involved possibly having instigated the crisis. Related to Iran? Is the US ensuring the ducks are all lined up before a move against Iran. The usual appeasing of Israel? Will the emir have to be removed to ensure compliance?

What about Qatar's partnership with Turkey? Turkey has a military base in Qatar.

hat tip Kaz
Another thing to add is that Turkey's most important partner in the region is Qatar. Qatar is on the same page as Turkey so far I have witnessed. Further more Turkey has a military base in Qatar.
Trussing Turkey:
“The negative side of this crisis for Turkey is that Ankara will fail to act independently in the region, as it was during President Obama’s term in office,” he added. “In other words, Turkey will have to adhere to the NATO policy in the region.”
And the light is burning bright- The US is killing many birds with one stone. Using Qatar as a means of exerting pressure on Turkey. Forcing them back to the fold.
 
 
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"We certainly would encourage the parties to sit down together and address these differences, and we — if there's any role that we can play in terms of helping them address those, we think it is important that the [Gulf Cooperation Council] remain unified," Tillerson told reporters

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The US is most definitely not an uninterested player:

 Qatar is home to the sprawling al-Udeid Air Base, which is home to the forward headquarters of the U.S. military's Central Command. It wasn't clear if the decision would affect American military operations. Central Command officials and the Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Link

Here's What's Behind the Qatar Diplomatic Split

The diplomatic crisis that enveloped the Gulf region on Monday pits some of the world’s richest nations in a power struggle over regional dominance. An alliance of four Arab nations led by Saudi Arabia is seeking to isolate tiny Qatar over its ties to Iran -- the Saudis’ chief foe -- as well as Qatari support for Islamist movements they oppose.

While those differences have sparked earlier standoffs, the unprecedented steps taken this time round leave the nations’ leaders with limited room for maneuver. Here, analysts comment on what’s behind the moves and what might happen next.

    The aim is to get Qatar to take “a harder line towards Iran, renounce the Muslim Brotherhood” and change the editorial policy of the Al-Jazeera media network, she says.
    A Qatari compromise “would represent a huge loss of face” for ruler Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. “He’ll be quite reluctant to make a public denouncement of those positions.”
    Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. were emboldened by President Trump’s recent visit to Riyadh. Still, “it’s not in the U.S.’s interest to see the GCC sort of unravel,” according to Wood. “That could potentially push the U.S. to step in to act as intermediary between the countries.”
Good thing the US has a big military base in Qatar.




Firas Abi Ali, regional risk analyst at IHS Markit
    “The emerging anti-Qatar coalition is unlikely to back down without some change in the Qatari government’s orientation and policies, including the expulsion of Qatar-based Hamas and Taliban leaders, and wanted Egyptian clerics,” he says. 
    Initially, Qatar is likely to attempt to create the illusion it’s complying -- without fully doing so, according to Abi Ali. And then in three to six months, it will probably “agree to the demands of its neighbors, leading Arab states to halt their escalation.”

    If Qatar fails to comply, there’s the risk of sanctions or an effort to replace the emir, with a view to bringing Qatar under the same level of Saudi influence as Bahrain.”
Yup, that is overthrow the leadership. As stated it is very convenient the US has a sprawling military base located in Qatar should just such an overthrow be necessary.

    A decision by key members of Qatar’s most powerful families to abandon the emir and side with Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. is far more likely than military escalation.

Ghanem Nuseibeh, founder of Cornerstone Global Associates

    The average Qatari citizen will feel the impact pretty soon as Saudi Arabia has blocked the land border through which Qatar imports food.
    “Inflation will quickly accelerate,” he says, and there “will be chaos in Doha airport,” possibly triggering street protests and putting “immense pressure on the government.”
    “Qatar has no other choice but to back down, the survival of Qatar as a sovereign state is at stake.”

Mohamed Kamal, political science professor at Cairo University

    “Qatar doesn’t have much choice but to shift policies,” as the Gulf Cooperation Council “is its natural habitat, and it cannot survive outside it for long,” he says.
    “Iran cannot replace Saudi Arabia for Qatar -- so there will be some compromises and reconsideration of positions.”

Lori Plotkin Boghardt, fellow at The Washington Institute

    “The endgame is to get Qatar to change its policies, and the Saudis and Emiratis can be expected to up their game until that happens,” she says.  
    There’s a history of “active Saudi and Emirati support for leadership change in Qatar.”  That “would be a last resort” as it is risky to destabilize a Gulf Cooperation Council Council state. “But it can’t be ruled out.”
    “The Qataris are going to need to convince the Emiratis and the Saudis that they’re not giving support to their domestic opposition.”
    The U.S. would support the pressure on Qatar since a number of its policies “have been troublesome for a long time,” she says. “Any positive change in Qatar’s policies toward Hamas, terrorist financiers, and other destabilizing forces, would be generally viewed as a good thing from the U.S. perspective.”
Link

Iran ready to boost food exports to Qatar


Qatar is definitely having the thumb screws applied- It won't take long to cut Qatar off and make life miserable for it's inhabitants via this embargo- Can't rule out a regime change operation.

2 earlier posts today:

29 comments:

  1. Another thing to add is that Turkey's most important partner in the region is Qatar. Qatar is on the same page as Turkey so far I have witnessed. Further more Turkey has a military base in Qatar.

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    1. Very interesting Kaz- One might say an Aha moment!
      I'm adding your comment to the post body
      thanks for it- you've given me another direction to dig in...
      and if you can leave any links to anything related please do?

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  2. US put the B52 in Qatar for Syria?

    Qatar and Glencore just bought into Rosneft

    Rosneft just did a Kurdistan oil deal. Lavrov and putin just had discussion non political with Barzani re the oil distribution and offtake deals.

    is barzani the Russian pipe route for the southern iraq fields coming online (exxon mobil dumped them..before the anbar spring)

    Russia Sells $11 Billion Stake in Rosneft to Glencore, Qatar - Bloomberg

    Britain to launch £30m Royal Navy facility in Bahrain next month 2016

    Nyef watch

    ReplyDelete
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    1. REMBER THE LAST TIME
      Those three countries accused Qatar of violating an agreement among GCC members not to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries.
      https://dohanews.co/gcc-diplomats-return-doha-new-agreement-signed/

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    2. hey anon linkie person!
      wondered where you had gotten to?
      I read the link- so much for non-interfering, eh?

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  3. To get a better picture of the degree of relations between Qatar and Turkey
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/03/turkey-qatar-diversifying-its-interests-risks.html

    http://aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/qatar-ready-to-accommodate-turkeys-lng-changing-needs/751127

    http://aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/turkey-s-erdogan-in-doha-for-talks-with-qatar-officials/750416

    One of the things I have noticed is that, Qatar is helping with the funds for helping the Syrian refugees in turkey accommodation and education. Another thing which is causing for this divide seems to be that unlike it other neighbours it cares about the lives of civilians which apparently is ignored by all its neighbours.

    Not related to this story
    http://aa.com.tr/en/analysis-news/pkk-s-franchising-strategy/826148

    http://aa.com.tr/en/analysis-news/hezbollah-s-mission-impossible/824569

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Two videos about Qatar
      Qatar under siege(4:08)
      - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0mAVUSrTps

      Interview with TRT World's Ahmed al Burai about Qatar diplomatic dispute(5:19)
      - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nauY3zzKbjg

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    2. thanks Kaz
      I watched both of the videos and have also made mental note that we are supposedly days away from the Kurdish move to annex Raqqa- which Turkey is less then happy with- so this serves as a distraction- increased tension- upping the pressure- etc

      Making the timing completely not coincidental


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    3. This seems to be more than that. I cannot help but knowing all its neighbors and actors currently active in the region. I cannot get rid of this eerie feeling, like the start of something truly horrific.

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    4. Kaz, I understand that feeling. I've had it for the past month or so-- can't shake it either

      re: Raqqa
      just one more reason

      I think the reasoning is multiple
      Turkey and the Raqqa move- Turkey said, if provoked by the Kurds they'll respond..
      Turkey and Astana( partnering with Russsia and Iran)
      Turkey and Iran (gold for oil trading)
      Iran, just Iran in general- (kurds and Israel again)
      Qatar and Libya
      It's not one thing, it's multiples of things- and Raqqa was just another one that had crossed my mind

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  4. I'm going with Qatar moves closer to Iran, Russia, China, and Syria. They stop the money follow to Syrian thugs.

    https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201706061054373008-qatar-saudi-sanctions-oil-food-income/

    I read somewhere but now can't find it that Syrian troops are now at the border of Raqqa.

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    Replies
    1. You should double check it with this map.

      http://syria.liveuamap.com

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    2. https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201706061054373008-qatar-saudi-sanctions-oil-food-income/

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    3. thanks kaz and jo for the additional links- I got to play catch up with the links and make a post..
      hoping tomorrow

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  5. The attack on Qatar is a result of it not being a Zionist lackey.
    However, the Turkish angle is more mixed.

    The political ventures have not exactly been good for Turkey. It has mainly focused on promoting sunni extremism, and the Muslim brotherhood, as a foreign policy project to increase Turkish influence. The education Qatar provides is religious indoctrination.
    These policies were sometimes at odds with the NATO, but mostly in tune with it. Turkeys FP shift last summer was independent of Qatar.

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    1. "The political ventures have not exactly been good for Turkey. It has mainly focused on promoting sunni extremism, and the Muslim brotherhood, as a foreign policy project to increase Turkish influence."

      I get the muslim brotherhood part and I think it was somewhat a mistake of the AKP ruled government, but can you fill me in, on how its promoting sunni extremism ?

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    2. The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt under Morsi, and still, attack copts, they are involved in terrorism. Its an extremist organisation.
      The attempt by Qatar and Turkey was to set up sunni statelets in sovereign states and seek influence there. We have seen this in Iraq, Syria and Libya. These Islamist groups, such as Ahrar al-Sham, are sunni extremists.

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    3. I wouldn't go as far as saying that they are promoting sunni extremism, but they ended up supporting the wrong people which I always thought of it being some kind of trap which unfortunately Erdogan did not fathom.

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  6. The reason Erdogan is so worried about this is that Qatars royal family are the main business partners of Erdogan and his family. This is therefore an attack on Erdogan and AKP, since Qatar has been bankrolling AKP for years.
    The sanctions have most likely frozen quite a bit of Erdogans personal assets.
    Once Qatar is done, Erdogan and AKP will fall by default. So this is a regime change operation in both Qatar and Turkey, tied to their support of the Muslim brotherhood.
    I find it unlikely that a US puppet will take Erdogans place. Most likely it will be a nationalist, that will follow Turkeys immediate foreign policy interests, in Syria and elsewhere, but not be focused on the grandiose projects of Erdogan.

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    1. It is not that I would be surprised of that first statement, but with statements like that I would categorize it as downright falsehood if there are no sources to back that up?

      And to the Qatar is done part, I don't think Erdogan and AKP will fall by default, but it would make turkey's ambitions a hell of a lot harder because Qatar is the only wealthy country to back Turkey up. If Qatar were to be removed from the equation I would not know how much it would change, but I suspect that Turkey would have to start delivering more compromises with regards to its foreign policies.

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    2. Relax, I don't spread falsehoods.
      Earlier this year the Emir visited Trabzon, Turkey with Erdogan and his son-in-law they agreed to set a business venture regarding winter sports in the area, this was quite controversial in Turkey.

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    3. You make the mistake of believing that Erdogan and AKP = Turkey -- they don't.
      Yes, it will force Erdogan to finally give up on his aim of having regional influence, using the MB, which was never going to happen anyway. Spreading political Islam was bad for Turkey and the region.
      This will all revert Turkey back to the insular, nationalistic country it was before 2002. Turkey will still go after the PKK, and imminent threats, but give up on Erdogan and AKP's expansionist agenda. Qatars downfall = Erdogans and AKP's downfall -- it's that simple, and I'm quite sure the US planned it so.


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    4. 1st post. Still going to ask for a source on that one

      2nd Post. Erdogan is currently still in charge till 3 November 2019(unless there is a call for earlier election), So no I don't believe that Erdogan and AKP = Turkey. They are in charge at this moment. Next point of Erdogan to give up its aim on having a regional influence. First of all this is not a Erdogan ambition, that is the ambition of the general public, specially with the latest events which keep going on all arround. But they all stress the following point. Give us a military with which is state of the art and we can develop all equipment & parts ourselves and a economy which is strong before we even try doing these ambitious plans.

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    5. Look, you can google Erdogan + Qatar + Trabzon if you want info. Erdogan is corrupt and involved in a lot of shady deals.
      I don't support the Saudi move on Qatar one bit. I hope Qatar stand their ground and protect their sovereignty. Qatar is bad, but Saudi is evil, and the US demonic.

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    6. I have done that with different combinations in english and turkish and found nothing about that. So you say Erdogan is corrupt and involved in shady deals, thats nothing new thats is an inherent problem of Turkey. Erdogan or no Erdogan I am pretty sure that for a minimum of 20 years whoever gets into the government of Turkey is going to be corrupt, because the ordinary citizens are also corrupt.

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  7. hey kaz and rescue:
    I would say the corruption extends well beyond Turkey and any leadership, just my opinion.

    Corruption looks to be a standard mode of operation in government in general

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    1. Power attracts the corruptible, but also the government is as corrupt as its people. Because even people who outrage when they see corrupt officials, but play down their own corrupt actions.

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    2. I won't disagree Kaz- not at all- Because I see so many corrupt people in Canada, corrupt institutions etc.,

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