Tuesday, January 10, 2017

The Reunification of Syria- PKK/YPG not Invited to Astana

Hoping you listened to the brief interview posted earlier today?Here it is again  Bashar Al Assad Interview January 2017
If you haven't yet you probably should

An oped from Gwynne Dyer: A first or maybe a second for the blog. Gwynne Dyer is much like Robert Fisk- Except he's Canadian. Not to be relied on, but, occasionally useful.
Japan Times 

 

LONDON – "So far the end game in Syria has played out in an entirely predictable way. All of Aleppo is back in the Syrian government’s hands, that decisive victory for President Bashar Assad and his Russian backers has been followed by a cease-fire, and the Russians are now organizing a peace conference in Astana, Kazakhstan, for later this month"
YPG/PKK  Kurds are apparently, at least according to them, not invited:

"We are not invited. That's for sure," Khaled Eissa, a PYD member told Reuters in France. "It seems there were some vetoes. Neither the PYD or our military formation will be present," he said.
This news doesn't break my heart- Their intent regarding Syria, like Turkey, has never been peaceful. It's really difficult for me to see them at peace talks. 

Gwynne Dyer continues:
"The one surprise is that Turkey, long the rebels’ most important supporter, will be co-chairing the conference. This means that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made a deal of some sort with Russian President Vladimir Putin, for Astana is clearly going to be a Russian show. (America has not been invited, and Saudi Arabia probably won’t be asked to attend either.)

So what kind of deal has Erdogan made with Putin? The details may well have been fudged, for Turkey has not yet renounced its long-standing insistence that Assad must step down as the Syrian leader. (Yes they have. Gwynne get's that wrong. I've got quotes here from varying Turkish political leaders)  But it’s pretty easy to figure out most of what is going to be on the table in Astana (assuming the cease-fire holds until then).

Assad has won the war, thanks largely to Russian and Iranian intervention, and the Syrian rebels are doomed. There is no point in their fighting on, because all their outside supporters are peeling away. Turkey is now cooperating with Russia, on Jan. 20 Donald Trump will be U.S. president and also cooperating with Moscow, and Saudi Arabia is hopelessly over committed to its futile war in Yemen.

Even little Qatar, once one of the main paymasters of the Syrian rebellion, has now lost interest: It recently signed an $11.5 billion deal for a 19.5 percent stake in Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer. The rebels are completely on their own, and their only options are surrender or dying in the last ditch.

Syria’s rebels are almost all Islamists of one sort or another by now, but the less extreme ones will probably be offered an amnesty at Astana in return for signing a peace deal — which may contain some vague language about an election that might replace Assad at some point in the indefinite future. That’s as much as will be on offer, because Assad does not intend to quit and Moscow will not force him to.
The extreme Islamists — Islamic State, which controls much of eastern Syria and western Iraq, and the former Nusra Front, which controls much of north-western Syria — have not been invited to Astana, nor would they accept an invitation if it was issued.

The ex-Nusra Front (now renamed the Front for the Conquest of the Levant to disguise its membership in al-Qaida) was refreshingly frank in condemning the cease-fire and the peace talks: “We did not negotiate a cease-fire with anyone. The solution is to topple the regime through military action,” it said. A political solution would be “a waste of blood and revolution.”

But a military victory over Assad is no longer possible, so these groups are destined to lose on the battlefield and revert to mere terrorism. In terms of what a post-civil war Syria will look like, the great unanswered question is: What happens to the Syrian Kurds?

They are only one-tenth of the Syrian population, but they now control almost all of the Kurdish-majority areas across northern Syria. As America’s only ally on the ground in Syria, they have played a major role in driving back Islamic State. (Islamic State being America's other ally) They are not Islamists, they are not terrorists and they have avoided any military confrontation with Turkey despite Erdogan’s war on his country’s own Kurdish minority. ( Only in Dyer's dreams are the  YPG/PKK Kurds  not Islamists, not terrorists and avoided confrontation with Turkey. He's prevaricating.)

Yet Erdogan publicly identifies the Syrian Kurds as Turkey’s enemy, and they have not (or at least not yet) been invited to the Astana peace conference. Was Erdogan’s price for switching sides a free hand in destroying Rojava, the proto-state created by the Syrian Kurds? Very probably, yes."
Rojova, not recognized by anyone... was created from annexed Syrian territory- no one in Syria agreed to it. The US aided the PKK/YPG in their forced annexation/ethnic cleansing of vast swathes of Syria and Syrians
"Assad would be content for that to happen, provided Turkey handed over the corpse afterward. Putin doesn’t care one way or the other, and it’s most unlikely that Trump does either. The Turkish Army will have its hands full fighting the Syrian Kurds, but it has the numbers and the firepower to prevail in the end.

So even if the current cease-fire holds, and even if the peace conference at Astana goes exactly according to Moscow’s plan, there is still some fighting to be done in Syria. Assad’s army, with Russian and Iranian support, will have to suppress both Islamic State and the former Nusra Front, and the Turks will have to subjugate the Syrian Kurds.
This will take time, but with no more weapons and money flowing in from outside (since Turkey has turned off the taps) it will probably happen in the end. Which means that Assad will probably one day rule once again over a united Syria"
The problem with Dyer's contention? Turkey was not the only one supplying weapons to terrorists. He forgets all the other parties.. I don't. The largest provider of weapons to the terrorists being the US. Including all the ones they poured into Syria using the conduit of Turkey.

 Hopefully Syria can remain united. Intact. Complete. 
Dyer: That is a deeply discouraging prospect, but it is probably the least bad option that remains.
 Why does Dyer find this a discouraging prospect? Because a destabilization overthrow campaign backed by US/Israel/UK and France failed?

9 comments:

  1. Turkey's influence (control?) over certain of the terrorist groupings is the primary reason the Russians provided them their important role in the upcoming negotiations. The Assad government and their Russian allies had no other choice. In return the Turks called off their dogs in Allepo and other locales. The Iranians, though not especially thrilled, accept the on the ground realities. The above being no revelation to those realistically observing the Syrian situation.
    As for the Kurds, for what reason should they be included in any negotiations? Although all of the major players included in the process have their own interests at play as well as Syria's. The Kurds' interests are entirely self serving. Well, almost entirely. They serve the zio-israeli and empires interests in exchange for their support in the creation of, as you have consistantly informed, the israel 2.0 project. Along with the continued war upon and destruction/destabilization of the greater ME for the benefit of the "coalition's" MIC and their continuing profits.

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    1. Charles! Glad to see you back and I deleted the double, no worries- Hope you enjoyed the holidays and all is well with you?!

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  2. I've been reading religiously. Just been witholding comment as things play out. Certainly things are becoming clearer.
    As for duplications. Whenever I use the mobile for some reason comments duplicate? I apologize.

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  4. Its right across the left that they are dissapointed that the Kurds are not going to partition Syria and set up a terror state. It tells you all about the left you need to know.
    Unfortunately, Erdogan is ruining this victory for Turkey. His constitutional change is not going to pass in parliament. He is openly threatning AKP members, the scenes in parliament are insane,
    He has invited all his enemies to attack him.
    After he is humiliated, AKP will split, and the US/gülenists camp will have a new chance to remove him. I don't think he will last long now.
    I fear we will then have a pro-US goverment in Ankara. That will support partitioning Syria, & restart negotiations with the PKK.

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    1. Hi Rescue:

      Not sure if there is any victory to celebrate..
      I just don't think the US/Israel evil twins have the let the idea of partitioning Syria and creating Israel 2.0 go.

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  5. Victory was not exactly what I meant either, simply that Turkey are now in a much better position.

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  6. Hi Penny
    The US is now lobbying for YPG.
    The US confirmed that they havn't been invited to Astana, & they have now stated that they want SDF at the negotiating table.
    Also, CENTCOM tweeted a statement from the SDF confirming they have no ties to the PKK.
    US getting desperate.

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    1. The US is lobbying for YPG?
      Wow, they really don't hide their support for terrorists or terrorism do they?

      The whole SDF thing is such a sleight of hand..
      Yes, the US is getting desperate as is Israel-

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