Thursday, January 5, 2017

Erdogan And The Geopolitical Box Of Pandora

Via Southfront: I found this interesting

Written by Boyan Chukov; Originally appeared at A-specto, translated by Valentina Tzoneva exclusively for SouthFront


Famous French experts on Turkey, in analysis compared Recep Erdogan with Charles de Gaulle some 4-5 years ago. Incredible! Yes, that is how it was then! But certain events that took place led not only the French analysts but most of their Western colleagues to begin calling the Turkish President “Islamist”, a “Sultan” and a “dictator”The Western press and the press in our country began to talk about the “regime of Erdogan” while before it was not so. 
Generally, the western propaganda opened all its “gateways” and began to wash Recep Erdogan with sloppy media. Good or bad, the Turkish President was in the same situation as Vladimir Putin since he started to recover the geopolitical subjectivity of the Russian Federation.
Boyan Chukov. Photo: Antoaneta Kiselincheva
Boyan Chukov. Photo: Antoaneta Kiselincheva
Lately, Turkey has been hit by an unprecedented wave of terrorism. Over time, more and more of the terrorist acts are being associated with DAESH. The Kurdistan “trace” is no longer number one in such cases. The jihadists increasingly wreak bloody chaos in major Turkish cities and they are becoming more violent and bloodier. Victims among the civilian population are numerous. Another bloody act in Istanbul took place in Istanbul on 1 January, 2017Terrorism is causing severe impacts on the authorities in Ankara and personally, on Recep Erdogan. ( I've mentioned this point repeatedly though other mis/dis info sites have pushed the 'erdogan did it' meme ) The blow is on one of the most profitable sectors in the Turkish economy – tourism. Turkish people are traumatized not only politically and psychologically, but economically too. It is natural for the ordinary Turks to increasingly ask questions and look for answers. After all, it becomes clear that terrorist acts in Turkey are aimed at shaking and weakening the power position of Recep Tayyip ErdoganAnd it will not be particularly surprising if one of the uncaptured supporters of Fethullah Gülen, who is “left” in the personal security of the Turkish President, shoots him someday. Maybe, like in the case of Charles de Gaulle, someone will organize for him the next bloody Maidan on the tenets of “color revolutions”. (That colour revolution of sorts was organized for Turkey when the PKK broke the ceasefire in Turkey and when the YPG/PKK annexed Syrian territory with the help of the US)
Generally, Recep Erdogan finds himself in the position of the bandits in the Wild West, pursued by the sheriffThe avalanche of terrorist attacks on Turkish territory speaks of one thing onlyfar away from Turkey, certain sensitive and discrete structures have his poster with a photo that says WANTED.
One of the world leaders, who first reacted to the bloody act in discotheque “Reina” in Istanbul, was Vladimir Putin. He sent his condolences to Ankara. The Russian President wrote: “I can hardly imagine a more cynical crime of murdering peaceful people in the midst of New Year’s celebration. The concepts of human morality are totally foreign to the terrorists. Our common duty is to give a decisive response to the terrorist aggression”.
 Vladimir Putin made it clear that Russia upholds the decision to fight against terrorism, partnering with Ankara. A significant nuance appeared after the shooting in the “Reina” disco-club on 1JanuaryFor several months, Russia and Turkey have been partners in the fight against terrorism in Syria. And the results were not late. First, the fighting in Aleppo died down; then just before the New Year, the city was finally liberated from the jihadists.  (Exactly as had been covered here but ignored everywhere else. Why?)
Information has crept in the Turkish press that these days the Russian Military Space Force bombed DAESH positions around the Syrian town of Al Bab, providing air support to the Turkish army. Russian aviation has synchronized their actions with the Turkish troops on Syrian territory. But apart from this, it becomes obvious that the move towards closer Russian-Turkish cooperation in the fight against terrorism also applies in Turkey, which raises to an even higher level the military-political interaction between the two countries.
 Russian Airstrikes Supporting Turkish Troops but US Support Lacking. Not a surprise.
Bulgarian media was silent about two mysterious killings that occurred around December 19, 2016, when the Ambassador of the Russian Federation in Ankara was shot dead. In his home, in the presence of his wife, an employee of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Petr Polshtikov, was shot dead. In Belgium, the “corpse shot in the head” of Auditor General of NATO, Yves Shanderlon, was found. According to media reports, he was investigating firms that have financed terrorism and were involved in money laundering. The first is always associated with the second. Some analysts believe that these mysterious murders are interconnected with each other and have a symbolic meaning. Something like a signal directed at Moscow. The terrorist act at the disco-club “Reina” also has a symbolic meaning. This time, as a signal directed at Turkey.
- NATO Chief Auditor Yves Chandelon Found Dead In Suspicious Circumstances

-Pepe E: Who Profits From Turkey's Sarajevo Moment? CyberHeist Via SWIFT Turkey's Akbank
(death of Petr mentioned here)

Recep Tayyip Erdogan said publicly something outrageous at a press conference in Ankara a couple of days ago. Not that it’s a secret. He stated that there is evidence that the coalition led by the United States provides assistance to terrorists in Syria, including DAESH. Recep Tayyip Erdogan literally said: “They accused us for supporting DAESH. But it turned out that they themselves supported terrorists, including DAESH. To us, that is clear. We have evidence, including photos and videos”. 
The representative of the US State Department, Mark Toner, called the accusations of Recep Erdogan “ridiculous” and said that they did not contain “a single drop of truth”.
A few days ago, DAESH jihadists showed a video of two captured Turkish soldiers who were torched and burned alive. Again it is meant to cause trauma of Turkish public opinion and is directed against Recep Erdogan. Terrorists destroyed Turkish tanks on Syrian territory with the help of modern Western TOW anti-tank systems; the same, which a few weeks ago, Barack Obama enabled to procure a “moderate and armed Syrian opposition”. The number of Turkish military killed on Syrian territory already exceeds 40 people. Only on 22 December 2016 in the area of Al Bab, more than 16 Turkish military personnel were killed.
It is obvious that Turkey in recent weeks is increasingly coordinating actions in the Middle East with RussiaApparently, the fight against terrorism will deepen the interaction of the special services. Recep Erdogan’s statement that the US assists DAESH has a more distant goal. In practice, the Turkish president has invaluable support of Donald Trump, who before taking office, led an uphill battle with the group around Hillary Clinton. The accusation that the United States supports DAESH, in fact, is charged against Hillary Clinton, not against the newly-elected US president. Recep Erdogan placed a “trump card” in the hands of Donald Trump in his battle with Hillary Clinton’s people at the CIA, the Pentagon and the State Department who worked actively against himIn practice, the Turkish president stuck the label “supporters of terrorists” to the neocons. And he claims that there is evidence of this. We observe preparations for a large-scale reformation of the relationships between the key players in the Middle East. 
And since they all have a regional or global geopolitical code, it cannot but affect Bulgaria. Where are we? Unfortunately Sofia continues to behave as if Hillary Clinton has won the US presidential election and US foreign policy will not change. And Daniel Mitov together with his colleague, Nikolai Nenchev, will remain ministers. It looks like the rulers in Bulgaria rely on someone like Lee Harvey Oswald or at least someone like Jack Ruby to shoot Donald Trump before 20 January. It will not happen. The Russian press has raised enough noise that jihadists in Syria are fighting with Bulgarian weapons; it is something like a “yellow card”. In other words, Bulgarian weapons in Syria kill Russian and Turkish military personnel. Bulgarian media’s former senior officials and “experts” defended the policy of the current government of GERB in the trade of weapons in the Bulgarian media. Their arguments are in defense of the GERB government; however, it sounds like a meeting of 1989 of the Bulgarian-Russian bilateral commission on trade and economic cooperation in the “arms licenses”.
Yes, Bulgaria came seventh in the world in the export of weapons last year; it exported military products worth US$780 million. For information, prior to 1989, we had annual exports of Bulgarian MIC worth about US$2 billion. What is the difference? Before 1989, Bulgaria was a member of the Warsaw Treaty which guarantees the territorial integrity of our country and an army that is adequate to the national interests, equipped with modern weapons. Which one of the two guarantees do we have today as a member of NATO? The Bulgarian army is in a catastrophic situation. Donald Trump does not consider NATO as an organization at present, adequate for American national interests. Bulgarian weapons kill Turkish soldiers who are NATO allies. This is bad. The fact that Boyko Borisov pretends to be a friend of Recep Erdogan in this case does not help. Bulgarian weapons killing Russian military; this is bad. The Bulgarian people in their pro-Russian majority remember that the Russians are of the same civilizational family.
So far, we have been saying that Sofia is between two empires: the Russian and the Turkish. Today we, in practice, are against both. Sofia has not yet realized that the new US president is named Donald Trump and the rules of the game are changing. Who can guarantee that after another month “the big ones” will not wash their hands with Sofia, which was supporting terrorism? Borisov, Nenchev, myths or someone else? The government of GERB continues to use the anchor points of Hillary Clinton and Victoria Nuland. There will be another NATO after 20 January. Things will also change in Germany after that date. Angela Merkel is an avatar or a copy of Hillary Clinton. What happens afterwards? The copy will lose its original. The famous French philosopher, Jean Baudrillard calls a copy without an original – a simulacrum. Angela Merkel will lose her political weight in Europe as she glowed with the reflected light of the US neocons.
What is the conclusion of the foreign policy pursued by Boyko Borisov and his Foreign Minister, Daniel Mitov? On which side of the “barricade” are we? In foreign policy there are written and unwritten rules. Often, the unwritten ones are more important than the written. Someone should know them, though. Bulgaria in the face of the GERB government totally fails to comply with the unwritten rules in foreign policy. If anyone thinks he will get out of the mess which he stirs daily, with local tricks, he is lying to himself. Empires have the memory of an elephant and do not forgive anyone. Most likely, later on, Sofia will conclude that “the magician is sick and his trick did not work out” … but it will be too late. This is bad!

I don't know if I agree with every bit of this piece, but, none the less it's interesting. I was aware of Bulgaria's arms dealing ways- But if anyone can fill me in on what's up with Bulgaria in relation to the Russia and Turkey- I'd love to know- A few good reads, maybe?
Thanks in advance
I will get back to the nightclub terror attack- I've more to say on it. Still haven't seen the shooter in a Santa suit and have dismissed that completely as a media planted story, with no truth in reality, but I believe a message in metaphor. The author talks about symbolic meanings/messages for Turkey and Russia in these terror attacks- I agree 100 percent.

8 comments:

  1. I suspect this Santa Claus business may be related to the Christian St. Nicholas [ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Nicholas ] about whom I read recently on a neighboring friendly blog. He was born in Asia Minor (Greek Anatolia in present-day Turkey) and he is revered in Eastern Orthodox and other religious groupings. Since ISIS et al are at war with Christianity and not particularly happy with Russia amidst an uncertain and shifty Turkish policy, this may be akin to an attack on another icon, the Russian Army Choir. It's all pretty murky to a distant Westerner like me.

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    1. The Charles de Gaulle, Gold, Turkey (gold-gas) trade may be singly the most critical nexus considering the Russian reserve building, the massive Italian gold store (4th largest in world -something to keep in mind as Germany presses Italian austerity and debt crisis while the ECB seeks to leverage its financial alchemy with selective leaks about Paschi bank run. Italy too shares something interesting with De Gaulle which is something to keep in mind as the Bundebank scrambles to repatriate its gold.

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/9804444/Bundesbank-to-pull-gold-from-New-York-and-Paris-in-watershed-moment.html

      ZARRAB, 33, is a resident of Turkey is an Iranian-Turkish citizen.ZARRAB was arrested on March 19, 2016, and was presented in federal court in Miami, Florida, today. JAMSHIDY and NAJAFZADEH remain at large.
      https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/manhattan-us-attorney-announces-arrest-turkish-national-conspiring-evade-us-sanctions

      Bulgaria pincer
      Go back to the Bulgarian Burgas pipe and the protests years ago which ended with the dissolution of the gov't whose last stroke was to end the burgas deal. The NPP at the core of those protests was just settled (arrears). The Bulgarian govt has been drifting away from nato hardline for years. The new government has explicitly stated it will act to enhance russian relations. The Bulgarians refused to join the nato led black sea fleet, though the headquarters was place in country.
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-02-19/bulgarian-police-clash-with-sofia-anti-government-protesters-1-
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Burgas_bus_bombing
      http://www.pravdareport.com/world/ussr/26-06-2013/124948-georgia_saakashvili-0/


      US military contractors who were hit by an explosion at a Bulgarian military complex had been there to test weapons to arm Syrian opposition groups fighting the self-proclaimed Islamic State terrorist group.

      Read more: https://sputniknews.com/military/201506091023147850/

      @ editor
      note fillon talking up his Christianity, the Vatican push on China and the Russian stance on Christian-phobia for years even pushing a conference in Europe (going back to the Putin/Vatican and Orthodox/Vatican detente or appearances at least).

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    2. 2013 bulgaria withdrawsn pipe
      http://www.upi.com/Bulgaria-backs-out-of-Russian-pipe/18281363171154/

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  2. The NATO (FUKUS) countries have always played a double game in Syria and continue to.
    Turkey has always played a double game in Syria and continue to.
    Turkey and FUKUS have (inevitably) been playing double games with each other and continue to.
    Russia has been caught up in these double games by co-operating with both FUKUS and Turkey in some operations.

    The ONLY ones playing with a straight bat is Syria. (Correction - Hezbollah are 100% consistent with their support of Syria and perhaps Iran.)

    I appreciate that Russia is trying to save Syria without simultaneously starting WW3. But the Syrian war has gotten a whole lot more complicated than it need have.

    Turkey is now in a position where it needs Russia. So why doesn't Russia say to Turkey, "Stop buying ISIS oil and stop allowing the terrorists and the massive tonnage of supplies to enter Syria through Turkey. THEN you can have military and economic support"

    When dealing (if you have to) with liars and betrayers, it is essential that you insist that the liars fulfill their side of the bargain before you do. Otherwise . . . guess what?

    Russia needs to force Erdogan to choose sides and stop prolonging this war in Syria. Listening to his double dealing bullshit and waiting for him and the other double dealing psychopaths' situation to collapse under its own weight of lies is not a winning strategy while lives are being destroyed.

    Another commenter on another post (Rescue?) noted that Erdogan threatening expulsion of the US from Incirlik would have been impressive a year ago (instead of double dealing behind closed doors). But it is all a bit lame if not illusory now.

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    1. James- "Why doesn't Russia say to Turkey, "Stop buying ISIS oil and stop allowing the terrorists and the massive tonnage of supplies to enter Syria through Turkey. THEN you can have military and economic support"

      The Turkey buying ISIS oil was always a tenuous claim- I wrote several posts on that and... the outright evidence just wasn't there.

      As for supplies coming into Syria- even there Turkey's role has waned- it had to for the US to prep Turkey for it's destabilization

      The airbases present in Syria and there are three of them to my knowledge in the PKK annexed territory can handles weapons coming in and weapons have come through via Iraq

      Ss for inclirlik- there have been problem there that Turkey has made for the US and Rescue is the one that mentioned that previously here-

      We talked about the US moving personnel out- Germany shopping for a new locale- I actually think that the talk at this time is political and Turkey has been more or less pushing the Americans out for a while now..

      "Russia needs to force Erdogan to choose sides and stop prolonging this war in Syria"

      If not for Turkey working with Russia, Aleppo would not have been liberated nor would we have had the ceasefire agreement- As mentioned here and the author of the above piece discusses that too

      "For several months, Russia and Turkey have been partners in the fight against terrorism in Syria. And the results were not late. First, the fighting in Aleppo died down; then just before the New Year, the city was finally liberated from the jihadists"


      A great deal has changed, but, it's going to cost Turkey big time- The hit on Reina was full of messages to Turkey- Warnings.
      I just got to get the time to put something cohesive together (staying away from trolls at Sakers will help a lot with that!)

      Did you happen to read the links left by anon?
      Interesting stuff-

      I took a bit of time to read up on Bulgaria today- It's got government troubles and more...

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    2. Thanks for your detailed and thoughtful reply, Pen. I agree; Russia's approach to the Syrian war has produced results. That approach includes reaching agreements with the US and with Turkey.

      I am not suggesting Russia has failed in its endeavours. I am suggesting, though, that Russia has made the job longer and harder for itself (and Syria) by not taking full advantage of its strong negotiating position especially in the last year with Turkey.

      Recently we had reports of the Russian military being very upset at Moscow's insistence of negotiating with NATO et al instead of 'just going for it' in the field.

      Backtracking, things started going south for Erdogan with the US (and israel) when he balked at a military invasion of Syria back in 2013. I wrote about it, amongst a lot of other stuff, in a post at the time-
      When The "No-Fly Zone" Just Won't Fly
      He's been trying to tread a 'middle path' since then. But walking along a fence is not only a difficult thing to do, it leaves you in a very exposed and vulnerable position.

      No, I didn't read the links from Anonymous. I have more limited time to pursue these things these days so some things have to go and reading links from anonymous sources is one of things to go.

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    3. James, I would recommend that you look at AryanEmpires. He wrote about Erdogan refusing to give chemical weapons to Al Nusrah and then facing protests in 2013: http://aryanempires.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/exclusive-turkeys-erdogan-didnt-follow.html?m=1
      And a timeline of the events in Turkey leading up to the coup: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LDMXoyCYcIU
      And another post: http://aryanempires.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/war-on-turkey-erdogan-makes-further.html?m=1

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    4. Thanks Ally. The articles back up what I have thought since Erdogan balked at invading Syria in 2013; that Turkey would be destabilised by the US and friends.

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