Friday, March 24, 2017

Raqqa & Mosul To Fall in Unison- Tillerson Accelerating IS Fight

 Day 3 and the news on this war expansion is still amazingly scarce, considering the implications-  

Day 1-  US Launched "Surprise" Attack On Raqqa. Blocking SAA/Hezbollah/Russian Forces

Day 2-  US Attack on Raqqa Updated..
 
Jaafari says US move on Raqqa illegitimate... And the world media continues ignoring the news and Jaafari
 "Direct U.S. military intervention in Syrian territory as well as arming factions in Syria and encouraging them to challenge the authority of the state does not serve the fight against terrorism," he said
French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian  said on Friday the battle to recapture Raqqa would restart in the coming days.- Clearly doesn't care what Syria has to say
The Trump administration moves forward. Expanding the war on Syria. The US has long, long ago invaded Syria. Arming factions that have not only challenged the central state authority, but with US assistance they have annexed vast swathes of Syrian and Iraqi territory.. Yup, I'm talking ISIS and the Kurds. The story is all in the maps. The geography of ISIS's march from Mosul through Iraq and into Syria- taking territory for Kurdistan- In plain sight
 
Hey Penny
As you can see at the map below America no longer needs Turkey.
http://s45.radikal.ru/i109/1703/ba/d8129b16f78c.png
The new "strategic partner" will be created soon.
Divide and conquer.
 I placed the map to the side..

National Post
“This is pretty major,” Col. Joseph Scrocca, a spokesman for the U.S.-led military coalition that is fighting ISIL militants in Syria and Iraq, told reporters at the Pentagon on Wednesday
The United States is deepening its involvement in the war against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant after an unprecedented American airlift of Arab and Kurdish fighters to the front lines in northern Syria, supported by the first use of U.S. attack helicopters and artillery in the country.
Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, center, and Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, March 22, 2017
U.S. officials said the operation inserted Syrian Arab and Kurdish fighters behind ISIL lines west of Raqqa, subjecting the American personnel to a degree of risk previously avoided in Syria. The mission was focused on recapturing the dam, the nearby town of Tabqa and a local airfield.

By design, the operation is coinciding with a potentially climactic battle for Mosul, the main ISIL stronghold in Iraq. Together, the battles reflect a U.S. strategy of presenting IS with multiple challenges simultaneously.
Readers here may recall my mention that Mosul and Raqqa were intended to be taken or fall together? The US & Israel's Taking of Raqqa Impeded by Intermeddlers

“It is certain the US had desired and originally planned for Raqqa and Mosul to be taken at the same time. Literally, simultaneously.

The taking of the two key cities, Mosul and Raqqa,  is pivotal for the US/Israel plan for Kurdistan aka Israel 2.0. Since their plan has been for one unified Kurdish territory in Iraq, Syria and Turkey”

Better late then not all! Sure there have been delays, but, it’s certain that the US/Israel loves it when their plan finally comes together
NP “The U.S. airlift, known in military parlance as an air assault, marked a new level of commitment to Syria’s Kurds, whose partnership with the U.S. has prompted difficult discussions with Turkey. The U.S.-NATO ally sees the Kurdish fighters as a national security threat because of their links to militants inside Turkey”
 YPG =  PKK (rebranded , think marketing, for Syrian destabilization) = Terrorists proxies of US/Israel.  There are dozens and dozens of posts demonstrating quite clearly the idea of the YPG being 'Syria's kurds' are patently false.
The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces confirmed the U.S. airlift and said their fighters seized four villages south of the Euphrates and cut the main artery between Raqqa and northwestern Syria.
Cutting off SAA & allies- Taking more Syrian territory
Meanwhile the destroyers of Syria, Iraq, Iran and Turkey plot in Washington
In Washington, the U.S. hosted top officials from 68 nations for a meeting on accelerating the fight against IS in all its dimensions.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson (Trump’s secretary of State) told the coalition’s first ministerial gathering since President Donald Trump took office that the U.S. was still refining its strategy, but was clear about American priorities.
Undoubtedly Canada was represented at the meeting?

NP, again
“The Canadian military has begun to study options for an operation in Syria, for the Liberal government to consider as U.S. president Donald Trump hints he may expand the 16-year-old war on terrorism by sending more troops to that country

It is not publicly known whether the Trump government has asked Ottawa to contribute troops or assist in other ways in the war against ISIL in Syria, or to take on other roles in the war on terror. But if there is anything to be taken from the example of the war in neighbouring Iraq, where Canada has been a participant since August, 2014, such a request is possible.

Canadian special forces man an observation bunker, Monday, February 20, 2017 in northern Iraq.

Don’t they mean such an order is a given? Because Canada goes where it’s told to go- Like straight to hell as is the present case! (Canada has turned into a wretched nation)
Canada is one of 17 countries currently assisting Iraqi and Kurdish forces in Iraq. About Canadian 800 troops now involved in what the Canadian Forces calls Operation Impact. About 70 are elite Special Forces from the Ontario-based JTF2. They train, advise and assist Kurdish fighters and when at risk themselves, have occasionally joined the fight.
Canada is already indirectly (that's directly involved) involved in the war in Syria. Since December, JTF2 has been advising Iraqi Kurds deployed near the Syrian border in northwestern Iraq”

Putting JTF2 right in bed with PKK terrorists- shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone given JTF2's ‘counterterrorism’ training- KurdIShIS-

If Canada were to become involved militarily( To become involved? Doublespeak, much?) in Syria again it could send a small number of JTF2 troops there in an advisory role. (They are already there)  Another possibility is that Canada could be asked to provide “boots on the ground” to help protect civilians from violence in safe zones that Trump has said he intends to establish to prevent the Syrian refugee crisis from worsening.

Canadian Brig.-Gen. Dave Anderson, who heads the coalition’s strategic advisory team in Iraq, told Postmedia in an interview late last year that discussions were already taking place then about how “we — that is, the Iraqi security forces — can not only take Mosul but hold it afterwards.”
A bit of slip from Gen. Dave Anderson with the “we – that is, the Iraqi security forces” We  indicating the deep and full  involvement in taking Mosul undoubtedly occupying it afterwards

Canada’s Iraq mission could be extended indefinitely as part of that effort.
The potential ask for Canada to extend or expand its role in the region comes as Ottawa undertakes an open-ended commitment to lead a NATO battalion in Latvia from this June, and continue training missions in Poland and Ukraine

Canada, wretched nation. Any questions?

NPR-Big Changes And Major Dilemmas Loom In Next Phase Of ISIS War In Syria

Next phase of war. War expansion. No lack of clarity on the Trump administration plans
“The way ahead for the Trump administration amounts only to a " 'supersize' of the Obama plan," says Jennifer Cafarella of the Institute for the Study of War, which laid out a blueprint last week for the way ahead in Syria. But that isn't enough, she argues”
One last item of interest.. The destabilization of the ME/NA looks very nearly to be an US/UK/Israeli operation.With France/Canada/Germany/Norway playing smaller roles of support
“Even as Washington continues to figure out how to deal with Turkey, another big question involves its Arab allies.
The United States has long pressed for Arab states to participate in the anti-ISIS campaign, but has never been satisfied about their commitments. Jordan has sent some troops into Syria along its shared border, and Saudi Arabia has promised to send ground troops — but has not delivered.”

I just don’t think the US is that concerned- This is their plan. And Israel’s.  And they keep advancing it! It's been interesting to observe the recalcitrant/reluctant behaviour of the aforementioned nation states, vs private players/NATO inbreds, to be involved with a regional remake that will see the demise of the said nation states. In other words- Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan haven't been willing to participate in their own destruction. Which has not really bothered the US or Israel one little bit. They had the PKK in their back pocket all along and those three parties had everything to gain. Think of Libya? Same/Same. The US was the biggest player in destroying Libya.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu recently sent a clear message about his country's stance on the Syrian Kurds. "We do not wish any of our allies to stand with terrorist groups," he said.
From Al Qaeda to ISIS and back to Al Qaeda again

Another progression or regression in narrative I’ve noticed the past little while is, as ISIS shrinks, AQ grows-  In Iraq AQ morphed into ISIS- Which is reversing present day.

Emmanuel Goldstein / Goldstein Emmanuel only to become Emmanuel Goldstein again?


The switcheroo probably has some relation to a move towards Africa. Might just be time for a rebrand too?  After all it’s been years since ISIS emerged.  I'm in my tenth year of blogging and when PFYT began in 08, it was all AQ, all the time.


Examples below:

Thursday, March 23, 2017

US Attack on Raqqa Updated..

Yesterday I covered the “surprise” attack on Raqqa-

US Launched "Surprise" Attack On Raqqa. Blocking SAA/Hezbollah/Russian Forces

First I want to mention the absolute lack of coverage via the msm.. It's still the Parliament 'attack' and the usual Trump circus. And that's what I find odd? The media is against Trump claim isn't as believable when they are doing him a big favour by not or barely mentioning this move in Raqqa. So is the Trump  daily circus really a distraction from the expansion of war in the region?

 Then there is the spin from the alt media. Claiming it is unclear how the Trump administration plans to “proceed on Syria”?   Which very nearly shadows the msm presentation by muddying the waters and presenting plans as unclear?

It is quite clear that the Trump administration plans to proceed. They've done exactly that. Proceed. Move forward. Expand operations. They have brought in additional weapons and soldiers- They have blocked SAA and their allies. They are enabling the ethnic cleansing and annexation of Syrian territory and infrastructure. The US wants the airport to expand operations  The US has just made Syria's position at upcoming negotiations in Geneva weaker.While bolstering the YPG/PKK terrorists. There is nothing unclear about the move or Trumps plans to proceed. He, in fact, has just proceeded.

Since media shapes our perception it's always good to be aware of presentation.

 The US has been softening Raqqa for a while now, covered here on a number of occasions. Last time: Raqqa Revisit- Turkey's Syria Border Wall More then Half Complete 

Flashback:  November 2016 - Turkey: No US Cooperation on Safe Zone/Border Wall Construction Continues & Raqqa

 Flashback:  October 30/2016: The US & Israel's Taking of Raqqa Impeded by Intermeddlers
 
Including bombing bridges and all around the dam etc. What else is there to take away from this but that the US is expanding operations in Syria? 

The news from Raqqa is hard to come by- but here is what I’ve managed to find today
If anyone can assist in filling gaps I would appreciate it a great deal- Thanks in advance.

US Airdrop of Forces in Raqqa Draws New Sphere of Influence

Some of this information was covered in yesterday's post
The US-led international coalition against ISIS conducted on Tuesday night an airdrop of US forces and local allied fighters near the city of Tabqa in the northern province of Raqqa,

Sources following up developments in the region said the US airdrop came to support Arab members of the SDF, which includes a majority of Kurdish fighters backed by Washington.

“This new development will draw new borderlines to the sphere of influence in the region,” Director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights Rami Abdel Rahman told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He said the presence of US forces and their allies in the area would prevent regime forces from advancing in the direction of the southern suburbs of Raqqa city.

“It will also prevent regime forces from controlling the Taqba military airport,” Abdel Rahman said.

SDF sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that members from the Kurdish internal security force, Asayesh, also took part in the airdrop, adding it was the second joint landing operation between US forces and the Kurds.

Civilians under fire- Not a shocker

But for residents of Tabqa, a city of around 80,000 people just south of the dam, the onslaught poses a major threat to their lives, as their homes, schools and even a bakery come under fire from the air.

This week, US-led coalition airstrikes have killed dozens of civilians in Tabqa and nearby towns and villages, as part of a months-long campaign to advance toward Raqqa city. An airstrike Monday night reportedly killed at least 33 displaced people taking shelter in a school building located in a nearby town.
 Tabqa on Wednesday. Photo courtesy of Raqqa Is Being Slaughtered Silently.

"It is very difficult for people to move around inside the city and its countryside because of the warplanes," Abu Juwwad, a Tabqa resident and 40-year-old father of three, tells Syria Direct reporter Noura al-Hourani. A local monitoring group reported airstrikes targeting Tabqa throughout the day on Thursday.

At least 37 civilians have been killed in and around Tabqa over past 24 hours alone, Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently, a local human rights monitor, posted online late Wednesday night.

Q: Are there any fears that the Tabqa Dam will be targeted? If it is hit, what is the likely result?

The coalition is targeting the area surrounding the Tabqa Dam on a daily basis.

It is true that they have not hit the structure of the dam directly, but they targeted the area around it, which could alter the structure of the earth in the area. This is making us fear that the dam will collapse.

If this happens, the result could be catastrophic for Tabqa city, Raqqa, Deir a-Zor, and even Iraq. The dam holds an incredible amount of water behind it. If it erupts, it will be a humanitarian catastrophe that nobody will be able to handle.
Ed.: Tabqa Dam’s former head engineer, Abdullah Juwwad Sukran, warned Syria Direct in the past that clashes near the dam risk targeting the structure, unleashing a flood of “historic proportions” downriver in Raqqa and Deir a-Zor, and submerging thousands of acres of farmland.]
 Collapsing dams have been discussed previously here- I won't rehash the danger if a collapse should occur

Bayık: If SDF liberates Raqqa, Turkey's influence will wane – PART I
This article covers Turkey’s no win situation regarding Raqqa- The annexation of Syrian territory and the creation of Kurdistan aka Israel 2.0
hatip to anonymous commenter who reminded me of a way back post from 2013- I'd forgotten entirely about it!
I read it briefly, but, must review the linked material

Turkey + Gladio + NATO = Is pressure being applied to Turkey?

"The overall U.S. policy toward Turkey is largely determined by the United States’ need and appreciation for Turkey as a strategic partner and NATO ally"
As observed June 2013, by yours truly
 Which could tell us that the US policy, being determined by the US's need for Turkey as a strategic partner and ally, can change depending on whatever 'need' the US determines is strategic at the time it is setting policy.

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

US Launched "Surprise" Attack On Raqqa. Blocking SAA/Hezbollah/Russian Forces

When I first started to assemble this post.. I was thinking, of course, about the further appropriation/theft of Syrian sovereign territory. The further confiscation of Syrian vital infrastructure. Then I realized that the US also moved to block Syria and her allies from their move towards Raqqa. 

I would call this a major escalation in Syria and region. Good thing the Trump Circus is always distracting. So, no change in policy from Obama to Trump then? None, that I can see. Full steam ahead.

 The Drive
 US-backed Syrian fighters and US special operations personnel, along with a cadre of Marines, have been deployed to the al Tabqa Dam, also known as the Euphrates Dam, located roughly 25 miles west of ISIS's self-proclaimed capital of al Raqqa.
 The surprise deployment to the dam was said to have been largely made possible via US airlift capabilities and fire support. Although the number of troops involved in the operation remains unconfirmed, multiple reports put it around 500.
 The dam provides electricity to the region, making it an especially high-value asset
  A military airbase and a detention center holding prisoners of ISIS are also nearby. The airfield in particular could provide a valuable hub of operations for aircraft and command and control assets, not to mention a firebase, if it were to be secured by US-backed forces.
 A valuable hub for what operations? Operations against which party? Syria? Turkey? Iran?


Top: The Euphrates Dam during construction in 1973. Bottom: Map showing relation of Euphrates Dam to al Raqqa.

 Here's where we get to the blocking of SAA and allies:
 Blocking the western approaches to al Raqqa may block fleeing ISIS fighters, but it also could work to block Syrian, Russian and Hezbollah troops from approaching the Islamic State stronghold. The US has executed a similar strategy to the north in Manbij, a move that has resulted in US and Russian troops staring each other down at a distance, while Turkey has said a military operation to route Kurdish fighters from the city is on the table. To call the town that is held by US and Syrian Democratic Forces—which are made up primarily of Kurdish fighters—a potential international flashpoint would be an understatement.
The US did not make this move now to block fleeing ISIS fighters from Raqqa- ISIS fighters, so called, have been fleeing Raqqa for weeks now!

Here's a report from March 08/2017: British YPG member says ISIS leadership fleeing Raqqa, Turkey excluded from the operation
"A British volunteer with the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) told ARA News that the Islamic State (ISIS) radical group is already relocating its leadership away from Raqqa city, in northeastern Syria.
Rojhat confirmed that ISIS is already fleeing Raqqa city.
“Absolutely, there are reports already coming out from Raqqa that they have relocated their leadership away from the city, so they know it will fall,” he said"
Pretty darn convenient, no? ISIS is fleeing Raqqa,  weeks ahead of a surprise US move on Raqqa-- Obviously the move on Raqqa has nothing to do with ISIS and everything to do with annexing Syrian territory in the remake the region agenda, while blocking SAA and allies.

NYT's ISIS Leaders Fleeing Raqqa- Two weeks ago
 As Syrian fighters backed by the United States close in on Raqqa, some of the Islamic State’s leaders have fled their self-declared capital
In case you doubted that ISIS had been leaving Raqqa weeks ago.
Clearly the US made this move to block SAA and allies-

Flashback: All of a sudden the appearance of the Shadowy Unmarked S-92 SuperHawk Reemerges in Middle East Hot Spot makes a whole lot of sense

 A gray, unmarked S-92 Superhawk with military modifications, including what appears to be elaborate communications and self defensive suites, as well as a rescue hoist among other add-ons, was spotted last week in the northern Syrian border town of Kobani.
DoD:
 WASHINGTON, March 22, 2017 — Local forces in Syria launched a multi-pronged offensive that included a daring air assault behind enemy lines to liberate Tabqa Dam, located 25 miles upstream from the city of Raqqa, the Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve public affairs officer said today.

Army Col. Joseph E. Scrocca conducted a teleconference live from Baghdad with the Pentagon press corps to detail the operation
“Seizing Tabqa dam will isolate Raqqa from three sides and give the SDF a strategic advantage and the launching point they need to liberate the city,” he said.
He means ethnically cleanse the city of it’s Arab population.. Appropriation of Syrian territory and infrasctructure for PKK/YPG

 U.S. Airlifts Hundreds of Militia Fighters in Attack to Cut Off Raqqa

Hundreds of Syrian fighters and their American advisers were airlifted by United States helicopters across enemy lines on Tuesday and Wednesday in a bold operation

 In a significant commitment of American forces, Marine Corps howitzers and Army Apache attack helicopters provided firepower for the operation. Army surface-to-surface Himars rockets, based in northern Syria, may be used. American Special Operations forces are advising the Syrian fighters on the ground
NYT's
  Hundreds of Syrian fighters and their American advisers were airlifted by United States helicopters across enemy lines on Tuesday and Wednesday.

 In a significant commitment of American forces, Marine Corps howitzers and Army Apache attack helicopters provided firepower for the operation. Army surface-to-surface Himars rockets, based in northern Syria, may be used. American Special Operations forces are advising the Syrian fighters on the ground, although a military spokesman asserted that they are not in direct, front-line combat.
 The hope is to take the dam intact.
  Rather then cover the involvement of US troops, in this obvious escalation, the media insists on covering the 'attack' on the UK parliament, that doesn't appear to have been an attack on the parliament or any parliamentarian. And then there is always the Trump circus- sigh.. while rolling eyes

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Syria: From Hot War to Frozen Conflict

Frozen Conflict
In international relations, a frozen conflict is a situation in which active armed conflict has been brought to an end, but no peace treaty or other political framework resolves the conflict to the satisfaction of the combatants. Therefore, legally the conflict can start again at any moment, creating an environment of insecurity and instability.

There is much talk about the war on Syria ending. I guess it’s all about how ending is defined?

The war on Iraq never ended after the ‘90 invasion. Though we were supposed to believe the '03 war was a new war, it was really a rebrand of the same war- Going from Gulf war to Iraq War.  Afterwards the Gulf/Iraq war morphed into an occupation that didn’t actually end in 2011,either, though that's the spin! The US Departure from Iraq was all Illusion!   The war against Iraq continues to this day... It’s been a long war- 27 years already.  The war in Syria looks to be following the same trajectory. Claims of it ending are greatly exaggerated.

 Judging by all that is reported. Syria will be federalized. The federalization will serve as the freezing of the conflict. For a time. Syria is a state that has become deeply divided.The division was intentionally created. The divisions will worsen still. It will be made to happen. The division will worsen until like Iraq, the state of Syria completely fractures.  There will be more fighting.
For now we'll talk about the conflict being frozen.  There will be an agreement that will please no one. Since the complete remake of the region has not taken place, yet. Russia is there to ensure it's interests are met. As are all other parties.

I’m not one that believes Russia is Syria’s great saviour- That ship sailed for me quite some time ago. To the contrary, I think Russia will act first and foremost in it’s own interest. Russia will enable Syria to stay as intact as Russia needs it to be. If Assad is looking for more, it will be up to him get back that which will be bargained away. In plain language a greatly weakened Assad will have to take back what is lost. If he can. If he cannot, he can look to Iraq as the future of Syria. Ugly isn’t it?

Assad said something interesting about Russia’s role regarding Israeli attacks against Syria

“I think Russia can play an important role in that regard, and the whole policy of Russia is based on the international law, it's based on the Charter of the United Nations, and the Security Council resolutions. So, they can discuss the same issues with the Israelis depending on this criteria, and they can play a role in order that Israel not attack Syria again in the future," Assad said.

Yup, Russia can. But, will they? Assad didn’t say they would. So, it’s anyone’s guess, really.
Flashback: March 01/2016- Vladimir Putin, Godfather of Kurdistan? Not a Parent of Kurdistan?
"Russia has sold Syria’s sovereignty down the river. As the US long did.
Both the US and Russia claim Syrian sovereignty is non negotiable. Both are lying. Would everyone feel better if I said- misleading?  Russia jumped into the Syrian fracas to block a split, a complete split, or a balkanization.  Pushing for some type of federated Syria instead of the US fracture. Speaking for myself, I wanted Syria to remain the nation that stole my heart. But, pretty much figured Russia was not going to save Syria in the way I’d hoped"
Flashback: Syria rejects Russian proposal for Kurdish federation

As of now it seems Syria’s initial rejection has turned into acceptance.. Resignedly, so. (to accept something as inevitable) There is still the possibility of a NATO/US intervention and safe zones. With some UN involvement. Safe zone talk has been around for sometime now- Obama and Trump, most recently, have both talked safe zones

Recall this one?

Flashback: NATO-Run Safe Zones Could Stabilize Syria- Invoke Article 5- US Election Unaffected
"First, NATO must stop the civil war in Syria by implementing the necessary no-fly zones and safe-haven enclaves. The new zone for President Bashar al-Assad and the Alawites must cover their area of influence, which is only about one-quarter of the country, in the West and North. This should stop the tidal wave of refugees to Europe.

NATO would take control of an existing airport in Syria, perhaps Deir Ezzour or Palmyra, thus countering the basing problem caused by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s denial of operating use of Incirlik air base to America and NATO"
 A way to occupy Syria without affecting the US election last year- Relinked due to the location mentioned for NATO taking control of an existing airport— Same locale as the Israeli airstrike last week- Palmyra. Could that airstrike by Israel have been about aiding in this or a similar  plan? Palmyra. The Israeli airstrikes can't just be a happenstance kind of occurrence.

Getting back to Russia can help with protecting Syria from Israeli air strikes, sure, but will they?

Let’s talk about rumours of Russia assisting the PKK in Syria. Kurds as proxies for both the Russians and the US/UK goes way back. Read: West Unhinged Over Turkish Referendum

 I don’t believe the Russians are in as deep with the PKK as the US/UK/Israel are- However the Russians are definitely playing the game- Yesterday the PKK in Afrin were claiming Russia was building a base, offering training while plying them with vodka and caviar...

It seems sensible there is some truth to this, but, the claims are also likely exaggerated (hence my vodka and caviar reference) I noticed the Kurds alone were making this claim and I had not seen anything from the Russians- A short time later the Russians clarified and said no base was being built for the Kurds.

“In accordance with the Russian-Turkish agreement signed on December 30, 2016, the Russian Center of Reconciliation carries out round-the-clock ceasefire monitoring. To prevent the violation of the ceasefire, one of the branches of the Center has been set up near Afrin, in a spot bordering the territory held by the Kurdish militias, and that under the command of the Turkish-controlled Free Syrian Army.”
The US is also claiming they are completely unaware of this base.

Brief update... Just something to consider

So Russia is helping to strengthen a group whose vision of post-war Syria is nothing like the one Mr Al Assad wants and against which Turkey is actively fighting.
So Russia assisting the YPG/PKK? In whose interests? Certainly not Assad's claimed interest.

I really do not believe at this point in time that Russia is building a base. A base is a commitment. A foreign base is a bigger commitment. I’m not so sure Russia has the resources, unlike the US, to commit. I could be wrong. That all said it seems sensible that Russia, with an eye to future business deals, would not alienate the PKK/YPG

The PKK/YPG is planning on creating a state military
 According to YPG Spokesperson Redur Xelil, the unit plans to turn itself into a more organized force similar to an army.
“We aspire to exceed 100,000 fighters in the second half of 2017,” he added.
 A state needs an army.  Then, pipelines? An army to protect the pipelines? 
Future business for Russia? It's all up for grabs right now isn't it?
War is a perverted form of doing business.

From earlier:

Shadowy Unmarked S-92 SuperHawk Reemerges in Middle East Hot Spot


 Hoping to tackle the Turkish aspect of this tomorrow, sometime..

 

Shadowy Unmarked S-92 SuperHawk Reemerges in Middle East Hot Spot

Bookmarked this the other day..
The Warzone

Who is flying this helicopter? For what reason?


Grey Unmarked S-92 Superhawk Spotted in Northern Syria

A gray, unmarked S-92 Superhawk with military modifications, including what appears to be elaborate communications and self defensive suites, as well as a rescue hoist among other add-ons, was spotted last week in the northern Syrian border town of Kobani.
Very similar, if not identical Superhawks were also spotted at America's Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti roughly 20 months ago. It remains unclear who these aircraft belong to, and what exactly their purpose is.
As detailed in my previous report, these aircraft could belong to a regional government, likely Saudi Arabia, although S-92s also fly for the governments of Turkey, Bahrain and Kuwait, but they have never been seen in this color scheme or configuration. The S-92s could also be used by the US State Department, CIA or another US agency. US Special Operations Command could also be contracting the helos for their unique needs, although they have plenty of other vertical-lift assets in the region at their disposal. Officially there are no S-92s flying operationally for the US Government today, but that doesn't mean a contractor or shell company isn't operating them on behalf of a US government agency. Eventually the S-92 will enter the Pentagon's inventory in the form of the VH-92A—the helicopter that is slated to replace the VH-60N and VH-3D as Marine One
The location of the helicopter shown in the photo is also interesting, as just like Djibouti, there is a strong, and increasing US special operations presence in northern Syria.
Kobani in particular was the site of fierce fighting in 2014 between ISIS and Kurdish fighters who, with the help of American air power, eventually routed the Islamic State from the town. Kobani was badly damaged in the fighting, but is now in the process of being rebuilt as many residents who ran from the fighting have begun to return home. A citizen-centric police force known as the Asayish patrol Kobani and many other towns in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region that makes up much of Northern Syria, also known as the "Rojava." The men in uniform seen standing in front of the helicopter in the picture are likely members of this indigenous security force.
Other mysterious S-92s have appeared elsewhere in the region, like this one that arrived in the Kurdish enclave of Erbil, Iraq, but not wearing the flat gray paint scheme and not as highly militarized as the one shown above or photographed on the Horn of Africa. 
We'll just have to wait to see where these shadowy Superhawks pop up next or if more info as to their origin and mission finally comes to light. 

Sunday, March 19, 2017

Winds of War Blow From Israel's Borders..

The winds of war are blowing on Israel’s borders

Analysis: The Israeli strike in Syria, the Russian and Syrian responses, and the flare-up in Gaza, are bringing Israel one step closer to a military collision. The relative calm along the borders in recent years, which has become a symbol of security stability and deterrence, is gradually wearing out. 
The two military incidents over the weekend, both on the Syrian front and on the Gazan front—although unrelated—point to the fact that the relative calm along the borders in the past few years, which has become a symbol of security stability and Israel's deterrence abilities, is gradually wearing out.
 So far, the logic behind IDF operations along the borders was that Israel must do everything in its power to avoid a military conflict.(Delusional tripe) This led to the creation of an equation: On the one hand, Israel acted over the weekend to curb the transfer of long-range and accurate weapons from Syria to Hezbollah and to damage Hamas's infrastructure and capabilities in the Gaza Strip; on the other hand, Israel made sure not to push the enemy into a corner that would force it to respond in a way that could lead to an all-out conflict.
In recent weeks, however, Israel itself has been putting this equation to the test. It seems as if there is someone on our side who won’t be too sorry to see the security issue reclaim the headlines.

The weekend events in the north indicate that Israel is striking in Syria not only to curb the Iranian arms convoys to Hezbollah, but also to demonstrate its presence in Syria and make it clear, especially to the Russians, that there will be no agreement in Syria without Israel's input.
According to the Syrian army’s announcement, the Israel Air Force attacked the T4 airport, between Homs and Palmyra, a particularly sensitive area as far as the Russians are concerned, as the Syrian military recently completed a successful attack in the area with massive Russian aid. The airstrike and the interception of the Syrian anti-aircraft projectile raised the stakes for Israel on the Syrian poker table. We are one step closer to a military escalation on the Syrian front. Both sides have climbed up a high tree and are unwilling to budge.
 Syria is successful in the area with the help of Russia. Israel strikes to assist their terrorists.
Russia summons the Israeli ambassador...

Russian Summons Israeli Envoy- Demands Clarification On Syria Strikes

Israel can’t climb down that tree because, according to its military policy, every show of weakness will harm its interests and give the Iranians a foothold in the Golan Heights and a pier at the port of Latakia. Such a pier will turn the supply of arms to Hezbollah from a drizzle into a deluge.
If the Syrians fail to climb down the tree and continue threatening Israel’s freedom of action against the weapon convoys to Hezbollah, a clash with the Syrian army—not just in the Golan Heights, but also deep within Syria—will be inevitable.
Israel is clearly taking a threatening posture-  Wanting Syria to "climb down" in the defence of their nation. Threatening to go "deep within Syria" This should surprise no one at all. Israel has been positively drooling as the prospect of delivering a heavy blow to Syria
There is no wonder there is a nervous silence coming out of Moscow. Such incidents could have far-reaching ramifications on the agreement the Russians are trying to establish in Syria.

The Israeli ambassador in Moscow does not usually get summoned right before Shabbat unless there is unusual concern and anger on the Russian side. It’s quite possible that the Russians feel there is a gap between what they heard from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his meetings with President Vladimir Putin and Israeli actions on the ground. This isn’t another operational misunderstanding discussed as part of the coordination between the two armies, the Israeli and the Russian, or between the two defense ministries. This is a diplomatic crisis.
By saying there is a gap between what Putin heard from Netanyahu and theactual Israeli actions it's very obvious Israel deceived Russia. Instead of admitting that Israeli leadership lied this is written to imply Putin heard incorrectly. Brinkmanship? You bet

In general, Syria's decision to launch the improved S-200 model, which the Russians recently sold them, is surprising. The S-200 is a heavy, immobile anti-aircraft missile, which can reach a range of 300 kilometers, and is not meant for intercepting fighter jets. Furthermore, Russian military experts said recently that Israel was using electronic warfare systems that completely “blind” the Syrian batteries and disrupt their communication systems.
Israel was surprised that Syria dared. Russia had informed Syria previously that Israel was using electronic warfare against Syria, to "blind" the missile batteries- Which begs the question: How did Syria get this missile launched in a timely fashion?
As far as we know, the Russians did not provide the Syrians with any information on the Israeli strike, which adds to the ambiguity of the decision to launch the Syrian interceptor. It’s also unclear who gave the order in Syria. It’s possible that the decision to launch the missile was not made in the presidential office, and that the Syrian military echelon claimed responsibility for the launch in hindsight.
As far as they know Russia didn't, but, perhaps Russia did provide the Syrians with the information. Israel is unsure.
The working assumption in Israel is that the Syrian missile was directed at some target—but not at the Air Force fighter aircraft, as they were no longer there. The Israeli Air Force is now investigating what was actually shot down by the Arrow missile. It might have been a large fragment of the S-200 that exploded in the air after missing its original target.
The IDF had no early warning about the Syrian missile launch. For years, the teams operating the Arrow 2 interceptor have been waiting for a real-time test—and they passed it successfully. This is also an impressive achievement for the Israeli defense industry. The Arrow 2 intercepted a ballistic object at a range of more than 100 kilometers, beyond Israel’s borders. This is a clear message to the Iranians for the day they decide to fire Shahab missile at Israel.
The IDF had no early warning that Syria had launched the missile. Interesting.
Curious on how exactly early warning is defined? Their technology?Their spies? 
In Gaza, there has been a significant spike in the number of rockets launched at Israel by Salafist groups. Israel is using this as an excuse to increase its aerial activity against critical military infrastructures in the strip. But this back-and-forth game of ping-pong is taking place during a dramatic change of leadership in Gaza. Yahya Sanwar, who will become the Hamas leader in Gaza in April, is a former student of Abdullah Azzam, al-Qaeda’s spiritual teacher. Granted, he is giving up the prison and underground manners for political visits to civil institutions in the strip, dressed in a suit, but he is not committed to the alleged signs of moderation conveyed by the Hamas leadership in the Gulf states.

Israeli officials estimate that Hamas’ failure to respond to the airstrikes should not be taken as a sign of political moderation, but rather as a sign the organization has simply not yet completed its preparations for another round of fighting. This doesn’t guarantee that Israeli pressure, which will humiliate the leadership in Gaza or lead to casualties, won’t drag Hamas into an armed conflict with the weapons it has accumulated so far.

Israel sending messages..

IDF kills militia commander in drone strike

Yasser Hussien Assayed and his vehicle after the drone strike
Gaza & Sinai
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-03/18/c_136139136.htm

Meanwhile the slow acceleration of the shadow war in Gaza continues to escalate.

day before Syria strikes
Israeli Forces Target Hamas After Projectile From Gaza Hits Country
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201703161051629091-israel-hamas-attacks/

Cross border Sinai attack
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  1. I see news of Egypt being unable to get the Sinai under control...

    http://www.voanews.com/a/egypt-struggles-counter-insurgency-sinai-peninsula/3772017.html

    "The Egyptian government is struggling to counter an increasingly violent insurgency in the Sinai Peninsula targeting Egyptian police, security forces and Christians.

    Several militant groups, including Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, which has pledged allegiance to the Islamic State group, are controlling large swaths of Sinai, which borders the Gaza Strip and Israel, and have established rule separate from the government in Cairo."

    What will Israel do?


    From Earlier:

    Hate

Hate

 Have you all noticed as of late how much hatin' on hate is going on? As we condemn hate, we condone it, by hating. It's positively bipolar- extremes of emotion - The way we are informed to not hate while supporting the fight against it , usually involving oppressive stances. Or we insist upon having the state impose violence against alleged haters- If we hate, condemn and impose violence on  so called haters doesn't that make us hateful haters?  Digression: read the absurdities at the embedded link.



 Curiously enough hubby and I were discussing a related topic just the other day. We we're talking about the human ability to discern friend from foe. Judge a threat. Quickly. Avoid being preyed upon by taking the necessary action. I fully believe this survival skill is an utterly necessary human trait.
   In fact it's one that should be employed with more frequency by everyone.  Then this skill, which has obviously gotten weak, can be honed. (refined or made perfect) It seems quite obvious to me that since we haven't exercised this discernment, for various reasons mostly having to do with the many fallacious beliefs we've been indoctrinated with, we have lost that ability to quickly discern or assess precarious situations we  may find ourselves in. Our failure to employ this innate sense is the very reason we, individuals included in a group, are being preyed upon by those who have been vigilant in both employing this discernment and indoctrinating their prey, us, with those aforementioned fallacious beliefs.

Hate is but one tool in that skill set. One of many equally important tools

Putting value judgements on emotions is yet another contrived absurdity- Emotions are not good or bad. They are not positive or negative. Emotions just are. They exist You and I feel them. And that's it. Labels are placed on them so that you can be manipulated. (Science can't even define or explain what an emotion is) The labels, like the assigned values, are truly meaningless gibberish. You know when your angry. You know when your sad. Glad. Mad. Ecstatic. Concerned. Etc., And you know when you love. And you all know hate. None of these feelings or passions are necessarily bad or good on their own. How emotions are utilized or expressed is where the benefit or detriment of any emotion comes into play.

Hate is bad, except when encouraged by the State

Won't spend too much time on this. Pretty sure everyone here understands when the State wants to attack another nation, they use propaganda to encourage the citizens to hate those the State desires to attack. It's a topic that has been repeatedly covered here so just one small reminder

Example:

Lasswell explained that "to mobilize the hatred of the people against the enemy, represent the opposing nation as a menacing, murderous aggressor ... Represent the opposing nation as satanic; it violates all the moral standards (mores) of the group, and insults its self-esteem." 

Resulting in..
Admiral William F. Halsey, commander of the US South Pacific Force, at a l944 press conference declared:

"The only good Jap is a Jap whose been dead six months. When we get to Tokyo ... we'll have a celebration where Tokyo was.

 As we all understand the State loves Hate when it serves their goals and agendas

"They hate us for our freedoms"

 Hate is really, really bad, when discouraged by the State

Here, in a part of the world commonly known as the west, Hate is presented as a societal negative. Unless the state is encouraging hate for war making (discussed above)

 Love your neighbour, turn the other cheek, be a social justice warrior- Put all others above yourself. Entirely unrealistic. You can't love everyone. If you've been attacked etc you do not turn the other cheek. As for the flaky social justice warriors and their bizarre perceptions of social justice...
Is there social justice when you yourself are being put upon? Though you are oblivious to it?   Is it socially just to impose your ways on others? Doing good for one specific group via the divide to conquer strategy of identity politics can harm others. Is that really social justice?

All  these inculcated beliefs are how a person is turned into a rug, to be walked upon or across.  The State loves a society of rug people they can walk all over. Are you a rug?

Borrowed the next little bit from here

Wish I'd caught on to the anti hate campaign sooner, myself.
 "Those who create these social concepts have ulterior motives as they showcase hate as a consuming poison that must be eradicated.

Social control is the main force driving this anti-hate campaign. If you choose to control a society, for instance, then you need that society to be as complacent as possible. Hatred can lead to anger, and anger can lead to violent action, and violent action is the opposite of complacency. Thus, harboring the emotion of hatred becomes socially unacceptable and religiously immoral"


Hate as an impetus for change

 Hate can be an impetus for change. That's why the elites and their lackies manipulate this vital emotion.With the help of the all pervasive perception managing media. That includes main stream media,  social media, movies and any other outlet of influence. The powers that shouldn't be inform us who to hate and who not to hate- Plus where, when and why to hate. Because the creation of hate serves them and their agenda for change. They thrive on that mass of energy.  But does that created 'hate' serve us? After all it's not our desire for change.

 That said, our hate should serve us. Let me give an example here to clarify. We hate our present day circumstance. It's oppressive. Our governments don't work for us. We are becoming as a society more impoverished. And I'm not talkin' just finances. Pretty sure we can all agree with that contention.
 This should be an impetus for change. And yet it isn't. I've seen no real push for change. We still participate in our own oppression. We carry our personal tracking devices around 24/7. We fail to be aware of our circumstances and our surroundings making us easy prey. In more ways then one. We make enemies of those we should find common ground with. And, we completely fail to recognize the parties actually causing us harm. All due to the fact we have failed to properly employ our  personal hate. In other words by choosing to devalue & avoid our hate emotion we have opened ourselves up to abuse while simultaneously weakening our ability to survive and thrive.
"The ability to quickly separate friend from foe is an essential survival strategy. This primitive skill forms the basis of hate. Because mistaking an enemy for a friend can be deadly, mental processes are biased toward doubt, caution, mistrust, and dismissal in evaluating others"
We have mistaken enemies as friends for far too long now.

Channeling the Energy of Hate

 I believe hate used judiciously can improve many an intolerable situation. The powers that shouldn't be obviously feel the same. Because they manipulate hate to their advantage and our disadvantage.    Rather then mindlessly following the leads presented, we all need to be mindful of why's of hating.
Hate often arises out of conflict or a sense of impending harm. Who has truly been causing you harm? Who has been really causing conflict?  Change that which is within your control to change. And much more of it is within your control then you have been led to believe.

 Own your hate. Direct your hate. It's your emotion to engage with.  When you feel hate don't employ it in away that will cause your own life to worsen or become more difficult.  Instead channel it in a constructive fashion. Channel it towards change.

Finally: 

 If we begin to view hate appropriately as a necessity for survival and exercising it as a corrective remedy, rather then viewing it as a negative or a force only for destruction, we will certainly be living more honest engaged and self aware lives. Eventually know satisfaction & personal peace.





Additional Reading While Pondering Hate:

http://www.livescience.com/2431-humans-bother-emotions.html

http://www.emotionalcompetency.com/hate.htm

https://eccentriceclectic.wordpress.com/2009/04/14/hate-necessary-emotion-of-humanity/